Moon advised to prioritize alliance tasks before North Korea issues

President Moon Jae-in talks to U.S. President-elect Joe Biden on the phone, Nov. 12. Courtesy of Cheong Wa Dae

By Do Je-hae

One of the topics emphasized in President Moon Jae-in's congratulatory letter to U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, Tuesday, was bilateral cooperation to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of permanent peace. The South Korean President also mentioned the North Korea issue in the first Moon-Biden phone talks on Nov. 12, according to the presidential office.

Desperate for diplomatic achievements in the final phase of his presidency, Moon is expected to place priority on asserting his role as a mediator between the U.S. and North Korea when Biden takes office. But the dominant view is that the feasibility of Moon's push for "preemptive peace" will increasingly be called into question under Biden's hardline stance on North Korea and preference for bottom-up diplomacy rather than the top-down format of outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump.

Therefore, Moon's diplomatic team dealing with the U.S. should prioritize alliance tasks, rather than focusing primarily on the North Korea problem, according to some experts.

"I think that the South Korean government will want to discuss the North Korea issue with the U.S. and try to get the Biden administration to enter into a dialogue with North Korea," Shin Beom-chul, director of the Diplomacy and Security Center at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy (KRINS), told The Korea Times. "The U.S. will show respect toward the South Korean position on resuming dialogue, but will request substantial denuclearization measures from North Korea."

"Many South Koreans believe there is an urgent need to convince the incoming administration about the merits of engaging North Korea. But Biden is not new to this issue. He sees the real problem as a lack of reciprocity out of Pyongyang and is unlikely to give North Korea the attention or unconventional treatment that Trump did," Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, told The Korea Times. "So Seoul pushing for a strategy of early summits and preemptive peace is unlikely to work. A more prudent approach would be to first address tasks required to maintain the alliance. Next, patch up relations with Tokyo to get on the same page for dealing with China. Then from a position of coordinated strength, persuade Pyongyang to avoid provocations and return to working-level talks."

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U.S. President-elect Joe Biden/Yonhap

In addition, Korea needs to pay more attention to regional issues that are important for the U.S., such as Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation and China issues. "On the other hand, the U.S. is expected to request our stronger participation in the Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation and standing with the U.S. on China issues. We have to deal with these challenges well," Shin said.

Timing of Moon's visit to U.S.

During the letter, Moon did not mention anything about his wish for an early visit to the U.S. to meet Biden. The presidential office has only said that it will communicate closely with the U.S. through diplomatic channels. In contrast, Japan has been very forthcoming about an early meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Biden, with the aim to become the "first to arrive at the White Hosue" among global leaders, according to Japanese media reports. Suga is expected to make a trip to the U.S. shortly after Biden's inauguration on Jan. 20.

Some analysts say March would be a good time for Moon to visit the U.S. to meet Biden. "I think our government will also try to hold an early summit. However, it doesn't seem easy to arrange an early visit and I expect it to take place around March at the earliest. Ultimately, the U.S. will also consider China, Japan and then South Korea," Shin said.

"It would be great if President Moon goes to Washington for a meeting with President Biden quite soon after his inauguration. No need to rush to get there before Japan's Prime Minister Suga, but sometime in the first two or three months of the New Year would be a good idea to set the stage for future understanding and inter-action," Donald Kirk, an author and columnist on Korean Peninsula issues, told The Korea Times. "

Experts underlined that an early summit would be conducive for working out difference on USFK-related issues.

"The issue of sharing defense costs is expected to be more advantageous for Korea than in the Trump administration, and the transfer of wartime Operational Control Authority (OPCON) is unlikely to be carried out within Moon's term due to the absence of verification of full operational capability (FOC) in August," Shin said.

"The U.S. and South Korea should agree quite soon on terms for renewal of the agreement on U.S. bases in Korea. Biden and Moon could discuss the role of the bases, and the need for resuming U.S.-Korean joint military exercises, while the U.S. realistically reduces the excessive demands of Trump and his negotiators," Kirk said.