Wagner mutiny may have killed North Korea's dream project

2024-05-20 01:55:24      点击：011

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, welcomes North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for talks in Vladivostok, Russia, in this, April 25, 2019 photo. The Wagner Group's recent rebellion may have killed North Korea's dream project in Russia, an expert said Monday. AP-Yonhap

Expert says Pyongyang's hopes of taking advantage of Moscow ties now look dim

By Jung Min-ho

When Russia's military forces took control of Luhansk and Donetsk, two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, North Korea seized an opportunity, becoming only the second state after Syria to recognize their independence in a move to back Moscow.

Then followed the news that the North was offering 100,000 soldiers to help stabilize the regions and that it was supplying munitions to the Kremlin through the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary group with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

All this suggests that North Korea was keen to take advantage of the war. First, by selling Russia weapons during the conflict and then by taking part in its reconstruction. That plan may now have been seriously ― perhaps fatally ― disrupted after Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, initiated an open military rebellion, an analyst told The Korea Times, Monday.

"It is very possible that North Korea made several deals with the group. The cancellations of the deals would cause immediate damage to the regime," said Cho Han-bum, an expert on Russia at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a think tank.

But to North Korea, more serious damage from Prigozhin's one-day revolt that began Friday night has been inflicted on its long-term diplomatic strategy regarding Russia, its critical ally that can offer far more than money, he noted.

Wagner Group mercenaries pull out of the headquarters of the Southern Military District to return to base, in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday. Reuters-Yonhap

"North Korea's best-case scenario was probably Russia achieving a partial win in the war, which would allow it to strengthen its ties with Russia through reconstruction projects that might take years to finish. In exchange, North Korea could gain food, energy, weapons technology and Russia's diplomatic support," Cho said. "But the Wagner mutiny has spoiled those efforts."

Many experts believe the insurrection has revealed cracks in Putin's hold on power and could have a significant impact on the ongoing war. Cho agrees. He reckons that the Wagner Group has lost Putin's trust and will eventually be disbanded and punished thus weakening Russia's chances of victory in the war in the process.

"The Wagner Group has tens of thousands of mercenaries in Ukraine, where it has played a role in the war. Even with their support, Russia is badly struggling. If Moscow decides to get rid of them, which it will, it will be its loss. In addition, Russia will need more military resources to safely manage all the repercussions of the mutiny. All this may well lead Putin to seek a ceasefire," he said. "And that's not the scenario the North was banking on."

Apparently shocked by the uprising of Putin's close confidant, Pyongyang on Sunday offered its full support to the Russian government.

Speaking at a meeting with the Russian Ambassador to North Korea Alexander Matsegora, Vice Foreign Minister Im Chon-il expressed his "firm belief that the recent armed rebellion in Russia would be successfully put down" and said it will "strongly support any option and decision by the Russian leadership," according to North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.