The Kim Jong-un regime has shown improved capability in developing an intercontinental ballistic missile. Analysts say that North Korea is expected to complete the development soon, calling for more diplomatic efforts to resolve the North's threats. / Graphic by Cho Sang-won

Analysts say diplomatic negotiations only way to resolve tension

By Jun Ji-hye

North Korea has demonstrated significantly improved capability in developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) through its tests in July, according to defense analysts.

The analysts said such tests could be a sign that the Kim Jong-un regime may perfect an ICBM topped with a nuclear warhead soon and become capable of striking targets on the U.S. mainland.

But they noted that the North had yet to demonstrate a reliable re-entry vehicle robust enough to resist the heat and pressure of penetrating the atmosphere, and that this technology seemed a major hurdle for the North in its quest to develop an operational ICBM.

Before the North test-fired its first and second Hwasong-14s in July, claiming they were ICBMs, most outside experts believed that the North may be years away from completing its ICBM development. But the North surprised the international community by successfully firing the ICBMs twice.

Central Intelligence Agency director Mike Pompeo told a forum in Washington on Oct. 19 that North Korea could be "months" away from perfecting the ability to strike the U.S. with a nuclear weapon.

Citing an unidentified South Korean military official, Japan's Asahi Shimbun also reported on Oct. 11 that the North had completed development of a new ICBM with a longer range at the end of September.

The first Hwasong-14, launched on July 4, flew for 933 kilometers for 39 minutes and reached a height of 2,800 kilometers before landing in the East Sea, according to the North's state-run Korea Central News Agency (KCNA).

After this test, the North claimed it had perfected the warhead re-entry technology necessary to bring a nuclear-armed missile back into the Earth's atmosphere.

David Wright, co-director of the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said then that the missile could have flown up to 6,700 kilometers if it had been launched on a standard trajectory, not at a steep angle.

In the second test on July 28, the missile reached a maximum altitude of 3,700 kilometers and flew about 998 kilometers for 47 minutes, according to the KCNA.

A missile is assessed as an ICBM in general if its range exceeds 5,500 kilometers. Apparently, the North's goal is to develop an ICBM with a range of about 10,000 kilometers, enough to reach the U.S. mainland.

"I think North Korea has definitely demonstrated improved capability in its testing the past several months," said Terence Roehrig, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College. "However, I am not convinced they yet have an operational ICBM but they will continue working on it and if they do not have that capability now, they will at some point in the future."

Roehrig played down the North's claim that it has perfected the warhead re-entry technology, saying that a functioning re-entry vehicle for a long-range system remained one of the hurdles.

"North Korea has a re-entry vehicle for its short and medium-range missiles, but this is a more difficult challenge for an ICBM," he said. "Guidance systems are another challenge. There are many things that have to work in the proper order for a successful ICBM capability."

Re-entry technology refers to the ability to construct a shroud that covers the missile's warhead strong enough to withstand the extreme heat and other challenges involved in re-entering Earth's atmosphere from space. As the covered warhead re-enters the Earth's atmosphere at Mach 24, it needs to be capable of withstanding temperatures of around 7,000 to 8,000 Celsius.

Leon Sigal, director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council (SSRC) in New York, agreed.

"The North has yet to demonstrate a reliable re-entry vehicle for its ICBM," he said. But he added: "That may happen soon."

Roehrig also said, "Pyongyang will continue its efforts, regardless of how long it might take."

South Korea's Ministry of National Defense has come to a similar conclusion.

Vice Defense Minister Suh Choo-suk said the North had shown progress in its efforts to increase the range of its ballistic missiles and miniaturize a nuclear warhead to be mounted on them.

"The North's missile capabilities have been rapidly improved," he said. "But we have yet to confirm whether the North has the warhead re-entry technology."

Suh noted that the ministry's basic position was to enhance sanctions and deterrence against the North to prevent it from repeating strategic provocations such as ICBM launches and nuclear tests.

The position is in line with the U.S.-led international community's efforts to exert maximum diplomatic and economic pressure on the North to make it eventually give up its nuclear and missile programs.

But the North, at least so far, has shown no signs of abandoning such programs, with its leader Kim Jong-un threatening to take the "highest level" action in response to President Trump's threat to "totally destroy" the regime in Pyongyang.

The North's Rodong Sinmun newspaper also claimed in an editorial on Oct. 12 that the United States and its allies would see how the North achieved its goal of completing its nuclear forces despite sanctions, blockades and military measures.

Still, the U.S. analysts said the North Korean issue should be resolved through diplomacy and negotiations, rather than military force.

Roehrig said that starting a war in Korea would be a disaster.

"I am very concerned over the apparent willingness to use military force to resolve this problem," he said. "Diplomacy remains the only viable route."

But he added that deterrent force was also necessary in coping with the North Korean threats.

"Deterrence has been the central security concept on the peninsula for over 60y years and it has succeeded in keeping the peace in Korea," he said."

Sigal also noted that negotiation was "the only realistic policy."

"Talks are not the same as negotiations, which require meaningful proposals and reciprocity, which Trump seems to be impeding by insisting on Pyongyang's upfront commitment to denuclearization," he said.