By Kim Jae-kyoung

South Korea obtaining nuclear armament will not stop North Korea's military provocations or deter its nuclear threats, experts on the North said Thursday.

They expect deploying tactical nuclear weapons will only give Pyongyang more reason to speed up its nuclear development.

"The call to reintroduce nuclear weapons reflects an understandable frustration," Stephan Haggard, director of the Korea-Pacific Program at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, told The Korea Times.

"But it does very little to strengthen the deterrent. Moreover, reintroducing nuclear weapons would only provide further justification for North Korea to continue with its own nuclear program. This is simply a bad idea."

Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy to the six-party talks, also said he is not in favor of deploying tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea, citing the U.S.'s extended nuclear deterrence commitment to the South.

"The U.S. is committed to the defense of South Korea, and our nuclear umbrella for South Korea and Japan is a very important and credible element of our deterrence strategy," he said.

"North Korea's nuclear brinkmanship is being addressed with missile defense deployments (THAAD), joint military exercises, enhanced sanctions, better trilateral cooperation between Seoul, Tokyo and Washington and getting more information into North Korea."

Following the North's sixth and most powerful nuclear test Sept. 3, there have been growing calls both in Washington and Seoul to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons to counter its intensified provocations.

The debate gained steam after U.S. Senator John McCain, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, said Sunday the U.S. should seriously consider redeploying nuclear weapons in the South.

Sean King, senior vice president of Park Strategies, a New York-based political consultancy, believes South Korea having its own nuclear weapons will not influence North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

"U.S. nukes in South Korea won't help the situation, as it only plays into North Korea's propaganda hands," he said.

"I also don't think Pyongyang would ever nuke the South anyway, as it wouldn't want to spread nuclear fallout on territory that it considers its own."

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Long-term consequences

Analysts said reintroducing nuclear weapons is not a decision that can or should be made quickly as an immediate or "reflex" reaction to increased North Korean threats or actions.

"This decision has very important long-term strategic consequences for both countries, and in fact regional and perhaps global security, so it must be made thoughtfully, prudently and carefully," said Balbina Hwang, a visiting professor at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies.

"It is also an action that most likely cannot be implemented immediately for practical reasons."

She believes the public must have an accurate understanding about these weapons and their deployment, as there is a lot of misinformation.

"First, U.S. policy is to not publically announce its deployment of these weapons, so even if the decision to deploy was made, it would not be confirmed publically," she said.

"Second, such a decision will, and should, be made as a result of close coordination and full discussion and agreement between the two governments, and supported by the public in both countries."

The analysts said South Korea should not take too seriously the ongoing debate among U.S. politicians and government representatives.

"The Trump administration has not officially stated it supports this move, nor am I aware that there is any serious consideration of making such a change in U.S. policy at this time," Hwang said.

"Perhaps it is being discussed internally as one potential option, just as many options are and should be discussed and considered. It does not mean it will be adopted or implemented."

She explained that senators and other government representatives are free to voice their own opinions, just as some South Korean lawmakers are expressing radical views, such as South Korea pursuing its own nuclear weapons programs.

"These are opinions expressed by freely elected representatives. But they do not reflect any change in current U.S. government policy, nor even indicate U.S. government policies or stances on this issue have shifted," she said.

Tara O, an adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS, said U.S. politicians' remarks on tactical nuclear weapons in the South are in line with the idea of nuclear balance and deterrence.

"Tactical weapons deployment is perhaps a more concrete way for the U.S. to show commitment," O said.

"And with North Korea moving full speed ahead in developing capability to deliver nuclear weapons on the U.S., the question of nuclear balance emerges. The reality of the North Korean nuclear threat calls for examining all options."