North Korean leader Kim Jong-un disembarks from his aircraft, a modified IL-62M from the Soviet era, during his recent trip to Dalian for a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Kim is expected to use the same aircraft on his trip to Singapore for the June 12 summit with U.S. President Donald Trump. / Yonhap

By Oh Young-jin

The time is set, the place decided and the agenda fine-tuned.

All appears ready to go for the June 12 North Korea-U.S. summit at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa Island, Singapore, in a potential first round of what's supposed to be a bilateral effort to denuclearize the North and ease its way out of isolation.

But each of the North, the U.S. and South Korea, the three key stakeholders in this grand game, ends up seeking something that is not in its element, resembles wishful thinking and so is lacking in its sincerity.

Trump

The U.S. is not a saint and has made many deals with devil in its foreign policy detail. But it has more or less represented the better side of global affairs.

Under businessman President Donald Trump, it is trying to cut a deal with the worst combination of terrorist, despot and existential threat to the world's peace.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered his elder half-brother poisoned by his agents in Malaysia. The dictator, 34, had his uncle, a potential pretender, killed by anti-aircraft guns. And he has purged his subordinates for just dozing off during meetings.

Kim has inherited much of North Korea as one big gulag. Given the life spans of his father and grandfather, Kim Jong-un's rule will prove no less brutal than theirs.

Until quite recently, Kim held the region and the rest of the world hostage with his growing arsenal of nuclear weapons and missiles, and threats of nuclear war.

The U.S. is promising its adversary a lot ― security of its dynastic regime and prosperity ― like enabling North Koreans to eat meat ― under Kim's continued rule.

The deal Washington is offering denies what the North stands for. The country has provided many foreign policy challenges for previous U.S. presidents and Trump has made a big deal of that.

Besides the usual list of Trump's domestic problems, one cannot but wonder if the U.S. really means what it is telling the North or it is thinking of other possibilities.

Trump's tweet plugs the June 12 summit with Kim Jong-un as the beginning of "something big." / Yonhap

One such possibility is that the North, with its rigid dynasty and insulated economy, will not survive the onslaught of drastic changes that would be accompanied by an inevitable opening up of the country after a deal.

If the North withstands the changes, it would be weakened, ending up with no nuclear weapons or significantly reduced numbers. If not, the U.S. would end up with one less eyesore.

On both accounts, the U.S. could get a leg up on China, its rival, in their hegemonic contest. It remains to be seen how China will react to the process by which the North is denuclearized. But this will provide a clue to how the superpowers' fight will shape up.

Kim Jong-un

The North has more than once looked as if it depends on serendipity.

First, the North was apparently taken aback when Trump took to its proposal of talks.

Kim needed the talks to ease pressure from U.S.-led international sanctions, joined by the North's benefactor China, on which the country relied for much of its imports and exports.

Then there were rumors of an imminent U.S. attack.

So the young dictator rationalized this by saying that the North under his rule had become a nuclear weapons state and would focus on raising the standard of living for its people through economic development.

Kim's goal was to keep the weapons and use them as leverage to gain nuclear power status and earn some economic benefits.

But Kim's goal has been kept off track because Trump has pushed harder for more from the North than expected.

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to fly to Singapore for the U.S.-North Korea summit on Air Force One, a customized B747-200B. / Yonhap

When Trump theatrically canceled the June 12 summit, the North came with hat in hand to ask the U.S. to change its mind.

In a way, it looks like the ongoing process has gained a life of its own and it is hard to predict how it will end up. True, the North will try to gain the initiative in the lead-up to the summit and afterwards.

But one puzzle is whether the Western-educated, NBA-loving and unexpected heir to the impoverished state ― who is proving no less astute than his father and grandfather in preserving his power ― believes he can turn his country around and make it a Vietnam or China.

Vietnam is prospering thanks to its opening up but this came through unification. The North has a rival ― the South ― that is big and strong enough to absorb it, even when ruled by a president like Moon Jae-in, who is ready to give his eyeteeth for better inter-Korean ties.

Vietnam and China do not have the North's rigid dynastic rule that can turn brittle at the first sign of freedom and collapse.

If Kim is confident about the transition, perhaps it is thanks to the inter-Korean joint venture in Gaeseong. North Korean defector Thae Yong-ho says in his book that the North's leadership was surprised when the city's residents, whose discipline was known to be weak, became loyal after they got wealthy from wages paid by South Korean firms.

Kim is said to have ordered the construction of more places like Gaeseong. But the chance is that Kim will find it hard to maintain absolute power once the floodgates of change open.

Moon Jae-in

After what has happened, few can blame President Moon for being even more ambitious.

Moon turned the other cheek when the North belittled him and balked at its promises. But now he is having sweet revenge ― making lasting peace a distinct possibility. Can Moon become the first leader of a unified Korea? Does that thought cross his mind?

Nobel Committee

If the committee decides to give this year's peace prize to Trump and Kim, it would live up to its beginnings ― its creation being Alfred Nobel's fig leaf attempt to cover the dark side of his invention, dynamite, that made killing efficient.

It would help hide the hideous sides of the two leaders but dull the shine of its medallion, casting more doubt on its worthiness. Does the committee want another humiliating moment?