The railway station in Dandong, a Chinese city on the border with North Korea, is cordoned off Tuesday amid rumors that a top North Korean was visiting Beijing. The city is on the way from the North to Beijing. / Yonhap

By Oh Young-jin

What was going on in Beijing?

Was it North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's visit or a trial run for a possible Beijing summit for Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump in May?

"It must be Kim Jong-un or …," said a person who is familiar with how North Korea's leadership behaves, during an interview after reports about the North Korean dictator's visit to China Tuesday.

The person who doesn't want to be identified said the North, however estranged in its relationship with China, wouldn't dare meet U.S. President Donald Trump without first meeting Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The Kim-Trump summit is slated for May, with the meeting between President Moon Jae-in and Kim set for late April.

"If China stops its supplies completely for six months to one year, the North would find itself in a very tough spot ― so tough that its collapse can't be ruled out," he said.

Kim Jong-un says 'North Korea is committed to denuclearization' 2018-03-28 09:32  |  North Korea Kim Jong-un meets Xi in Beijing 2018-03-27 16:38  |  Politics Kim Jong-un makes surprise visit to China: reports 2018-03-27 07:53  |  North Korea Reports say the North Korean leader arrived in Beijing on a special train and was then taken via motorcade. But no one ― China, the United States or South Korea ― has confirmed it, not to mention Pyongyang.

The visit, if it was indeed by Kim Jong-un, would be his first as North Korean leader to China and his first encounter with the Chinese leader who has reportedly loathed the young dictator's uncontrollable pursuit of nuclear arms and long-range missiles.

Whether it was Kim or one by his subordinates, the visit has the purpose of checking whether Beijing is suitable for the May summit, the source said. "Kim Jong-un would not feel comfortable in any venue except for Pyongyang," he said. "Considering Trump would come to Pyongyang only when he thinks he can get the outcome he wants, the Chinese capital would most likely be the place."

At a Beijing summit, the likelihood is that Xi would be the host to Trump and Kim, making it a three-way summit. "For Seoul, it could prove a tall order to have a seat at the table," the source said.

Tuesday's visit would also be to coordinate the position of Beijing and Pyongyang before the North Korean-U.S. summit, he believed. "The North doesn't want to give up its nuclear weapons and missiles, while the United States wants nothing less than to see the North's nuclear programs dismantled completely."

As his logic goes, Beijing will play a role in mediating for a "freeze-for-freeze" formula to have the North stop its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs, while the United States helps suspend international sanctions on the North, especially the last two by the United Nations.

Trump got on board for the May talks, which he said would show the U.S. leader's determination to achieve the North's denuclearization. "The North must know about Trump's own expectations," the source said.

But there are murky parts to the U.S. goal of a denuclearized North Korea. "Which comes first to tackle ― nuclear materials and facilities or nuclear weapons? If a choice is made to tackle the first, then the North can buy a couple of years," he said.

The chance is that the North will try to drag things out, with the ultimate goal of surviving Trump's pressure. "Then it would emerge with its nuclear program still viable, while Trump could claim that the North no longer has a capability or plan to destroy the U.S. with nuclear weapons."