This Oct. 10, 2022, file photo shows children performing as they mark the 77th anniversary of the foundation of the ruling Workers' Party in Pyongyang, North Korea. North Korea’s fertility rate may be far lower than known through U.N. estimations, a recent study suggests. AFP-Yonhap

North Korea’s fertility rate ― the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime ― may have already fallen below 1.5, a recent study suggests.

According to a report released on Thursday by the North Korea research center at the Bank of Korea, the North’s fertility rate was estimated to have reached an all-time low of 1.38 in the 2010-19 period, a significant drop from 2.69 in the 1980-89 period.

That number is far lower than the estimate of the United Nations Population Fund ― 1.8 in 2023.

The reason for the gap may lie in the U.N. agency’s reliance on raw data provided by North Korean authorities, which is highly unreliable, the researchers said.

Instead of making their assessment based on anything given by the regime, the researchers conducted a survey on 95 North Korean escapees. Given that they may not give the accurate number of their own babies, the scholars studied the family trees of their relatives as well as acquaintances ― a total of 1,137 ― based on interviews.

With that method, the researchers concluded that North Korea’s fertility rate has decreased at a much faster pace than estimated by the U.N. The figure fell below 2 to 1.91 in the 1990s and slipped further to 1.59 in the 2000s before hitting 1.38 in the 2010s, the study shows.

They said the number is consistent with witness accounts that having just one child has increasingly become the norm among women born in the 70s and 80s after experiencing a devastating famine from 1994 to 1998 in North Korea.