President Yoon Suk-yeol delivers a speech during a ceremony to commemorate deceased veterans of the Korean Liberation Army at Seoul National Cemetery in Dongjak District, Seoul, Sunday. Yonhap

President expected to drop hints at Liberation Day speech

By Nam Hyun-woo

A series of recent meetings with senior U.S. officials dealing with issues on the Korean Peninsula are raising speculation that President Yoon Suk-yeol will soon unveil his "audacious plan," possibly a set of incentive packages, to entice North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

Based on remarks and indications by the presidential office and Cabinet members dealing with the issue, the plan is anticipated to boil down to providing economic support and security guarantees to the North Korean regime.

However, diplomatic observers believe that it remains to be seen if Yoon's plan will come to fruition amid uncertainties that the Kim Jong-un regime is unlikely to respond to it.

The audacious plan, unveiled at his inauguration speech, May 10, refers to Seoul's preparation to work with the international community to come up with measures that will vastly strengthen North Korea's economy and improve the quality of life for its people if the North embarks on a process toward complete denuclearization. Key details are likely to be announced today when Seoul marks National Liberation Day or during a press conference, Wednesday, which marks the 100th day of Yoon's inauguration.

During a press conference, July 22, Unification Minister Kwon Young-se hinted that Yoon's plan will contain "not only economic support but also a measure to address the North's security concerns," Pyongyang's logical ground for not giving up its nuclear weapons.

According to the presidential office, Yoon met with U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Paul LaCamera and U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Philip Goldberg at a closed-door dinner on Aug. 9. On Friday, the president had successive meetings with former U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres and U.S. Senator Ed Markey, the chair of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy.

Although details of their meetings were not disclosed, the president is believed to have had discussions on North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, especially the direction of the Yoon government's North Korea policy.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gestures as he delivers a speech at a national meeting reviewing emergency anti-epidemic measures in Pyongyang on Aug. 10, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency on Aug. 11. Yonhap

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However, experts are raising doubts over whether Yoon's plan will contain any viable options that will actually result in tangible outcomes.

"Those enticements are quite difficult to have feasible outcomes," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University. "There is a slim chance of North Korea giving up its nuclear program for the sake of economic incentives."

Park cited former President Lee Myung-bak's failed attempt, known as Vision 3,000 policy, which was unveiled in his inaugural speech in 2008. The policy sought to provide comprehensive aid to North Korea to bring its per capita income to $3,000 (3.9 million won) within the next 10 years if the North gives up its nuclear program and opens up its borders. This, however, failed to result in a noticeable outcome as North Korea showed no signs of denuclearization.

"The North then criticized the Vision 3,000 policy, saying it is aimed at introducing free democracy into North Korea, thus negating what it seeks as a socialist state," Park said.

Park also stressed that guaranteeing the security of the regime can be elusive. "It means diplomatic ties between the United States and the North. However, the North has already proclaimed that the diplomatic ties and its pursuit of a nuclear program are separate matters," he said.

Go Myong-hyun, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, also noted that "details should be added on how to draw desirable responses from the North and attract the U.S.' interest in this issue."

"Since its inauguration, the Yoon administration has been putting emphasis on deterrence against the North's threats, but there should also be a gesture indicating that his government is not entirely hostile toward the Kim Jong-un regime," Go said. "An audacious plan also means that the North should be audacious in accepting Seoul's olive branch."

As an option, Go proposed expanding humanitarian aid _ mostly medical supplies _ given the growing necessity of addressing North Korea's COVID-19 situation.

"So far, humanitarian aid has been more close to a face-saving tool. However, the pandemic situation in the North is increasing the necessity of medical supplies. Since this is not undermining the North Korean sanction framework of Seoul and Washington, there seems to be enough room to expand humanitarian aids."