North Korea likely to heighten provocations in April

2024-05-20 01:57:09      点击：317

A TV screen shows an image of a North Korean missile launch during a news program at Seoul Station, March 28. AP-Yonhap

By Lee Hyo-jin

North Korea is expected to continue escalating provocations this month in connection with major political events in Pyongyang, as well as in protest of President Yoon Suk Yeol's state visit to the United States slated for April 26.

Enhancing preparedness for possible North Korean aggression, the South Korean military will hold trilateral naval drills with the U.S. and Japan this week. The exercises, involving the nuclear-powered USS Nimitz aircraft carrier, will likely take place in the seas off southern Jeju Island.

This will be the first three-way maritime exercise between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo in some six months since the latest held last October.

The relatively rare display of trilateral military cooperation comes amid possible new provocations from Pyongyang.

The reclusive regime will celebrate major anniversaries this month, including the 11th anniversary of its leader Kim Jong-un's inauguration on April 11, and April 15 Day of the Sun, an annual holiday marking the birthday of North Korea's founding leader Kim Il-sung. In addition, April 25 marks the founding of the Korean People's Army.

Pyongyang usually times its provocations with political events to show off its arsenal to the world and is widely expected to keep following that pattern.

Analysts view that the North may display its military strength through test-firing of its new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) or by launching an ICBM at a normal trajectory, which would prove its weapons are capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.

Speculations are also rising that it may unveil its first military reconnaissance satellite.

The launch of reconnaissance satellites was one of the key objectives announced by Kim during a party meeting in 2021, along with multi-warhead missiles, underwater-launched nuclear weapons and nuclear-powered submarines.

The nuclear-powered USS Nimitz aircraft carrier departs Busan Naval Base, Sunday. The U.S. Navy carrier strike group will carry out joint drills with the South Korean and Japanese militaries this week. Yonhap

Last December, Pyongyang claimed that it successfully conducted a final-stage test for the development of its first spy satellite, vowing to complete launch preparations by April 2023.

South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup said there is a possibility that the North could launch the satellite in April.

"The basic principles of the launch of the satellite and ICBMs are the same, and they seem to have accumulated necessary technology through ICBM launches," he said during a National Assembly session, March 23.

Amid escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea on Sunday scaled up its belligerent rhetoric, saying that its nuclear capabilities are not "empty talk."

"The U.S. and its followers should never forget the fact that their rival state has possessed the nuclear attack capability in practice as well as the characteristics of the people and army of the DPRK which do not make empty talk," the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in an English statement. The DPRK stands for Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.

The KCNA also strongly denounced the ongoing joint military drills between South Korea and the U.S. and the largest-ever live-fire joint exercise scheduled for June.

Meanwhile, according to 38 North, a Washington-based think tank on North Korea, high levels of activity have been spotted at a major nuclear complex in Yongbyon, including water discharges that could be associated with testing of an experimental light water reactor (ELWR) cooling system.

"This is not the first time water discharges have been observed coming from the ELWR over the past few years but may indicate the reactor is nearing completion," read the report published on Saturday.

The move aligns with Kim's recent orders to increase the nation's nuclear arsenal exponentially and expand the production of weapons-grade nuclear materials.