'Joint declaration' needed to ensure success for denuclearizationBy Kim Jae-kyoung
SINGAPORE ― Following a series of tit-for-tat moves over the past month,
U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un put their final touch for June 12 summit.
Experts said that although Washington and Pyongyang had numerous senior- and working-level talks until the last minute, the outcome of the summit remained uncertain, considering the intricacies of issues and the unpredictability of the two leaders.
Regardless of what agreement the two leaders reach, the bottom line for a successful summit is for the two sides to make a "joint declaration."
"We should be looking for whether there is a joint declaration that puts expectations on paper," Stephan Haggard, director of the Korea-Pacific Program at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, told The Korea Times.
"If they both just hold a press conference, it will be hard to interpret what actually happened," he added.
It is important to note that the devil is in the detail.
Because denuclearization is a process, not an outcome, the joint declaration should include a detailed framework and peace process.
"If the two sides are able to develop a framework for denuclearization and a peace process, the summit will have been a success," said Troy Stangarone, a Washington-based expert on North Korea and Korean unification.
"That being said, it will be specific details negotiated and implemented after the summit, which will ultimately determine the summit's success. The six party talks fell apart over verification and the current process could as well."
Analysts pointed out that there are three thorny issues that might complicate today's Trump-Kim talks -- the definition of denuclearization, sanctions relief for North Korea and U.S. military activities in South Korea.
"The U.S. and North Korea do not share a common definition of what denuclearization means," said Stangarone, senior director of the Korea Economic Institute (KEI).
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Another tricky point is how to tie the process of denuclearization to sanctions relief.
While Trump has suggested that he is open to a phased process, finding the right balance of enough sanctions relief to keep North Korea engaged in the process will be difficult.
"Getting this balance right will be the key to a successful process," said Stangarone.
At the same time, both sides will need to engage in confidence-building measures.
"One initial step that North Korea could take would be to allow inspectors to examine the destruction of the test tunnels at that Punggye-ri test site," he said.
Sean King, senior vice president of Park Strategies, is concerned that the summit might generate a bad deal if Trump focuses too much just on denuclearization.
"For Kim's part, the world is waiting to see if he'll take significant steps toward denuclearization," he said.?
"Trump might start considering reducing U.S. forces in South Korea in exchange for any token move toward denuclearization by Kim."
The ideal scenario is that the two leaders would meet each other halfway.
"At Trump's end, he would need to understand that quick disarmament?within six months?is extremely unrealistic and that Kim will not relinquish his nuclear and missile program before sanctions relief," said Nah Liang Tuang, a research fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore.
"On Kim's part, he must realize that he is in no legal position to demand the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea, the abolition of the American nuclear umbrella over the ROK, or a permanent end to U.S.-ROK military exercises."
William Brown, adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service, did not rule out the possibility that the two leaders would make a dramatic agreement.
"Given they are both showmen of a sort, I would not be surprised if they make some splash by announcing some immediate breakthroughs, such as opening tourism offices or creating a peace conference," he said.
"Hopefully, Kim will also say something about stopping fissile material production -- plutonium and highly-enriched uranium (HEU) _ which, if verified, would be a good basis for gradually releasing the sanctions.
