In this photo carried by North Korean state media Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Wednesday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un celebrates with workers over what the state claims was a successful launch of a military reconnaissance satellite on Tuesday night. Yonhap

Surveillance satellite may help Pyongyang conduct precision missile strikesBy Lee Hyo-jin

North Korea's launch of a military spy satellite — if proven to be successful in terms of its surveillance functions — will pose heightened security threats to South Korea, analysts said Wednesday.

While it may take a few days, if not weeks, to fully determine whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's ambition to obtain a military reconnaissance satellite has been achieved, experts said the launch itself shows a significant improvement in Pyongyang's satellite technologies.

North Korea fired a rocket carrying what it claimed to be a military reconnaissance satellite "Malligyong-1" from Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province, at 10:43 p.m., Tuesday, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JSC).

The satellite was accurately placed into the designated orbit about 12 minutes after liftoff, as reported by the North's state media Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Wednesday morning. The KCNA referred to the launch as the nation's "legitimate right to bolster its self-defense capabilities."

Tuesday's launch marked the North's third attempt following two previous botched endeavors earlier this year.

 

The South Korean military did not immediately verify whether the launch was a success.

"North Korea made a hasty announcement about the success, which is difficult to accept at face value. We will make a judgment after further analyzing various information, including data shared by the United States," a senior defense official told reporters, Wednesday.

Later in the day, the authorities said the satellite seemed to have entered into orbit.

"The so-called 'military reconnaissance satellite' launched by North Korea has been evaluated to have entered orbit, based on comprehensive analysis of flight trajectory information and other data," the JCS said in a text message sent to reporters.

But it added that confirmation of whether the satellite is properly functioning requires additional analysis through the coordinated efforts of relevant agencies.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, a think tank, also said it is too early to make a judgment.

"Just entering orbit doesn't mean that the launch was successful. The satellite would need to deploy its solar panels and then undergo attitude control. We will be able to hear from the North in the coming days if the satellite can actually be utilized," he said.

"Otherwise, it will just be space junk."

Nevertheless, Shin pointed out that Tuesday's launch indicates visible technological advancement, which may pose serious threats to Seoul's national security, as the North is expected to send up multiple spy satellites in the future.

Touting the successful launch, the KCNA reported that the national space agency plans to launch more spy satellites in the near future to continue strengthening its surveillance capabilities over South Korea and other regions related to its military operation.

Yang Moo-jin, the president of the University of North Korean Studies, said the North's space-based surveillance system, if properly established, will serve as the eye for North Korea in launching more accurate missile strikes.

"Operational spy satellite is not only capable of obtaining real-time information about South Korea's military assets, but it would also bolster the regime's ability to conduct accurate missile strikes on targets," he said.

The spy satellite's surveillance activities could stretch beyond the Korean Peninsula to key U.S. military bases in Guam and Japan.

However, it remains to be seen whether its camera is advanced enough to deliver high-resolution images. Little is known about the satellite's technical capabilities, such as camera operating technology, data processing and the transmission ability of its communication devices.

When the South Korean military retrieved parts of a North Korean spy satellite that plunged into the West Sea in May, authorities assessed that the device had no military utility as a reconnaissance satellite.

But this time may be different, according to experts, who believe that Russia provided technological support for the latest launch.

When North Korean leader Kim Jong-un held a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia's space center in September, the latter pledged to help Pyongyang modernize its satellite technology.

"Kim Jong-un would not have sent millions of artillery shells to Russia just to get some technical advice," Yang said, speculating that the satellite sent up on Tuesday is equipped with enhanced imaging technology with assistance from Russia.

Chang Young-keun, director of the missile center at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, commented that Russia may provide further assistance.

"If North Korea continues to receive support from Russia in the future, it might explore other options such as securing or facilitating the purchase of hardware technologies necessary for accelerating satellite development," he said.