Seoul faces dilemma in upcoming joint military drill

2024-05-21 03:22:23      点击：239

North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un presides over the first workshop of the commanders and political officers of the Korean People's Army (KPA) held in Pyongyang from July 24 to 27, in this photo released by the country's state-run Korean Central Television, Friday. Yonhap

Joint exercise emerges as key variable in thawing inter-Korean relations

By Jung Da-min

Whether South Korea and the United States will carry out their annual summertime joint military exercises scheduled for August could affect the development of inter-Korean relations, according to North Korea watchers, Sunday.

Inter-Korean relations, which had been stalemated for some time and were exacerbated by North Korea blowing up a building housing the inter-Korean joint liaison office in Gaesong in the North in June 2020, have shown signs of a thaw with the two countries restoring communication hotlines, July 27, the 68th anniversary of the signing of the armistice that ended the 1950-53 Korean War.

Moon Sung-mook, a senior researcher at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said a reconciliatory mood between the Koreas has not been automatically created with the restoration of the hotlines, adding that the North could demand a cancellation of the exercises as a "corresponding measure" to it responding to the South's peace efforts by restoring communications.

"The North responded to the South's call for the restoration of communications July 27, the day which the North claims as an anniversary of its victory (in the Korean War). There is the possibility that the North has demanded the South cancel its joint military drill with the U.S.," Moon said. "At the eighth congress of the North's ruling Workers' Party of Korea, the country's leader Kim Jong-un said there were two preconditions for inter-Korean talks ― the first was the cancellation of South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises and the second was stopping the introduction of advanced weapons from the U.S."

Pyongyang has long denounced the exercises, calling them a rehearsal for invasion. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said at a workshop for commanders and political officers of the Korean People's Army (KPA) held in Pyongyang from July 24 to 27 that "the hostile forces systematically keep bolstering up their capabilities for making a preemptive attack on the DPRK and increase armaments while intensifying all sorts of frantic and persistent war drills for aggression," according to the country's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). The DPRK, or the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is the official name of North Korea.

But Moon said he believes inter-Korean relations will not improve much even if the South accepts the demand, as the North did not show any commitment to improving inter-Korean ties in recent years when the South and U.S. replaced their springtime Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises, and the summertime Ulchi Freedom Guardian drills with scaled-down ones.

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Members of a liberal civic group hold a press conference in Seoul, Monday, calling for the joint summertime military exercise between South Korea and the United States to be cancelled to boost President Moon Jae-in's peace process on the Korean Peninsula. Yonhap

While ruling bloc figures are expressing hopes for another reconciliatory mood on the Korean Peninsula and a resumption of the stalled nuclear talks between the U.S. and North Korea, some are calling for the joint summertime exercise to be cancelled to "boost the mood for talks."

A high-ranking Ministry of Unification official told reporters Friday that he thinks the joint exercise should be postponed, citing the recent surge in COVID-19 cases in both South Korea and the United States, and the possible resumption of engagement policies toward the North. "We think this is the right time to fully engage with North Korea through cooperation between South Korea and the United States," he said.

But members of the country's conservative bloc oppose the idea, saying the matter of the joint drill should be dealt with separately from efforts to boost any reconciliatory mood between the Koreas, as the former is about maintaining national security.

"The Republic of Korea-U.S. joint exercises have already been conducted with just command post training using simulations without the actual mobilization of troops, and even this was not conducted properly in the first half of last year," said Rep. Hwangbo Seung-hee, a spokeswoman of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), Sunday.

"With such a cancellation of military exercises, it is has become difficult for the troops to maintain actual combat capability while the verification of the South Korean military's capabilities to lead joint operations has also become difficult."

Military helicopters at U.S. Army Garrison (USAG) Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, are seen in this March 8, file photo. Yonhap

Military experts have expressed a mixed response over whether the summertime exercises will be cancelled.

Moon of the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy said there is the possibility that the government has raised the issue with the U.S. On Friday, Defense Minister Suh Wook and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin held a phone conversation at request of the U.S. Meantime, Vice Minister of Unification Choi Young-joon is planning to visit the U.S. to discuss North Korea policy with officials there in September, according to ministry officials.

But Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University's Department of North Korea Studies, said he does not see the drill being cancelled at this last moment when it is set to kick off in about 10 days.

"The summertime exercises have already been scaled down to the point where they cannot be downsized anymore, leaving South Korea and the U.S. with only two options of either totally scrapping them or carrying them out as planned," Park said. "As it takes about three to six months to prepare for the joint drill, it would be difficult for the countries to cancel or adjust the plan at this last moment."