Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, left, and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin inspect an honor guard before their bilateral talks at the U.S. Department of Defense in Washington, D.C., Saturday (local time). Courtesy of Ministry of National Defense

Expanded exercise may also irk China

By Kang Seung-woo

Plans to expand a combined military drill between South Korea and the United States against North Korea's growing threats are expected to bring the Korean Peninsula back to a state of confrontation, ratcheting up cross-border tensions, Pyongyang watchers said, Monday.

The prediction comes as the allies seek to enhance their overall capabilities to deal with a possible all-out war on the peninsula through the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise, scheduled for Aug. 22 to Sept. 1, according to Seoul's defense ministry. In addition, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un also threatened last week to annihilate the new South Korean administration he claimed is pursuing a U.S.-led hostile policy against the North.

"It is inevitable that inter-Korean confrontation will deepen as North Korea has strongly responded to the combined exercise," said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher of the Korea Institute for National Unification.

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, also presented a similar view.

"North Korea has denounced the combined exercise, along with a dispatch of U.S. strategic assets, as a hostile policy toward the country, so the North is anticipated to vehemently respond to the drill in accordance with its leader's pledge, which would greatly escalate tensions on the peninsula," Park said.

On Thursday, the North Korean dictator warned that the Yoon Suk-yeol administration and its military authorities will face annihilation should it make any "dangerous attempt" like a preemptive strike.

"Such a dangerous attempt would be punished immediately by powerful forces, and the Yoon Suk-yeol administration and his military would be wiped out," he said in his speech to mark the 69th anniversary of the armistice that halted the 1950-53 Korean War that fell on Wednesday.

The diplomatic observers also predicted that North Korea's response will come after the combined drill ends.

"I think we are expected to see tensions intensify in September as North Korea has traditionally staged military provocations after the end of the combined exercise," Cho said.

Park also said, "At this point, North Korea is prone to opt for a high-intensity provocation such as a seventh nuclear test or a launch of an inter-continental ballistic missile."

South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities believe that another North Korean nuclear test is imminent.

Park added that it was only a matter of time before North Korea takes action.

Cho said the all-out war scenario would also affect China, which could trigger a backlash from Beijing.

"The U.S. Forces Korea commanding general underscored on July 29 the need to expand the bilateral alliance into a multinational and multidimensional coalition to deal with challenges from China and Russia as well as North Korea. In addition, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup also cited the need to preserve the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and peace in the Taiwan Strait during his meeting with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, July 30, both of which are U.S.-led anti-China policies," Cho said.

"In that sense, tensions on the peninsula are highly likely to mount."

In fact, the North Korean regime has stressed its strong relations with China amid a prolonged deadlock in its nuclear talks with the U.S. and the intensifying Sino-U.S. rivalry.

There is no urgent issue that can cause friction between South Korea and China, but if the South Korea-U.S. alliance leads to another situation similar to the deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery here, Beijing may opt for economic retaliation against Seoul, according to Cho. China is South Korea's largest trading partner.

"If the South Korea-U.S. alliance moves beyond the peninsula, it is apparently aimed at countering China. If so, China is likely to prepare for countermeasures," he added.