This April 25, 2019 file photo shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin greeting each other during their meeting at the Far East Federal University on Russky Island in Vladivostok, Russia. Experts said on Tuesday that the war in Ukraine has brought the countries closer and the two leaders could reach a major arms deal at the expected summit in Vladivostok next week. EPA-Yonhap

Russia's help would 'advance and expedite' development of North Korean weapons

By Jung Min-ho

After Russia invaded Ukraine last year, experts on North Korea warned that the conflict could lead to a dangerous partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow.

A protracted war could force the Kremlin to seek support from North Korea, which would be delighted to provide ammunition in return for Russian weapons technology, they said.

That grim scenario may be set to unfold when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un meets with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok sometime next week, as the New York Times reported citing U.S. sources.

Speaking to The Korea Times on Tuesday, analysts said it is "very likely" that the two leaders would sign a big deal including ammunition-for-tech exchanges and joint military drills. This, they added, would likely be the beginning of a stronger North Korea-Russia partnership that will probably outlast the war in Ukraine.

"If Russia runs out of ammunition stockpiles, its front lines will collapse. North Korea, which has plenty of ammunition, can help the desperate Russians. In exchange, it will try to obtain food, fertilizer, energy and technology for advanced weapons such as nuclear-powered submarines and ICBMs," said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a think tank.

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"Russia would not give them all to North Korea. But in the long run, North Korea is expected to receive Russian support in many of the areas of its interest, given that Moscow is desperate as long as the war continues and Pyongyang has the upper hand in negotiations," Cho added. "Such a deal used to be unthinkable because there was little Pyongyang could offer. But the war changed everything."

A Ukrainian self-propelled artillery system fires at Russian positions on the front line near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Sept. 1. AP-Yonhap

There are palpable signs that Russia is running low on ammunition, with some analysts predicting that it can happen in the months ahead. A shortage of shells was what Yevgeny Prigozhin, former leader of the Wagner private mercenary group, complained about before his ill-fated mutiny in June.

Driven into a corner diplomatically, Moscow hopes to strengthen a Russia-China-North Korea military partnership, experts said. However, as Beijing remains cautious apparently because of the risk to its more globally-connected economic and diplomatic systems, China appears to have focused on reinforcing its ties to Pyongyang, said Hyun Seung-soo, another expert on Russia at the think tank.

"At the expected summit, North Korea and Russia would make a big announcement as part of their joint attempt to undermine Western unity. But whether the deal would actually materialize bears further watching as well as how far the partnership would develop," Hyun said. "I think it largely depends on how the war goes."

An official at the Ministry of Unification told reporters that many signs indicate the growing possibility of an arms deal between North Korea and Russia, saying that Pyongyang appears to have sought to improve relations in recent years.

"Any form of cooperation between North Korea and its neighboring countries should be conducted in a way that does not damage international norms and peace," the official said.

Lim Soo-suk, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also raised concern over a possible arms deal between North Korea and Russia, urging all U.N. member states to respect the Security Council's resolutions banning weapons trade with the North.

Speaking at the National Assembly the previous day, National Intelligence Service Director Kim Kyou-hyun said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed conducting three-way naval exercises with North Korea and China during his meeting with Kim in late July.

Experts said North Korea has no reason to reject the offer, but they remain skeptical of the effectiveness of the drills, given the poor condition of the North's navy.

North Korea has expressed support for the Kremlin throughout the war in Ukraine, but it has so far denied allegations that it provided arms to Russia.