[ANALYSIS] Is North Korea ready to talk?

2024-05-19 21:37:08      点击：882

Kim Yo-Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, gives a speech during a party meeting held in Pyongyang in this Aug. 10, 2022, file photo. After years of escalating tensions with weapons development, Pyongyang now appears to be entering "a new phase" in its approach to handling Seoul and Washington, according to analysts on Tuesday. Yonhap

Pyongyang specifies demands in sign of entering 'phase for negotiation': experts

By Jung Min-ho

After years of escalating tensions with weapons development, Pyongyang now appears to have entered "a new phase" in its approach to handling Seoul and Washington, according to analysts on Tuesday.

Kim Yo-jong, the politically powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, said the previous day that U.S. efforts to strengthen "extended deterrence" would only push North Korea further from the negotiating table and, even if the two sides agreed to talk, its denuclearization would not be on the agenda. She then added North Korea would not buy into "U.S. lies" such as promises to pull its military forces from South Korea.

On the surface, the regime appears to maintain its hardline diplomatic policy against the U.S. But speaking to The Korea Times, experts said, for the first time in years, the North has specified its demands in a lengthy statement under a potential scenario of a diplomatic meeting ― a sign of its policy shift.

"Cornered and isolated, North Korea seems to have given a sign that it is open to talks," said Go Myong-hyun, a senior research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a think tank.

"After years of trying to solidify future negotiating power by fueling tensions with weapons tests, particularly last year, North Korea may have felt that it could gain more through talks now after realizing that there is little it could gain through more weapons tests."

This is nothing unusual, he noted. "For decades, North Korea has used a blend of the carrot and the stick in pursuit of its ultimate, unchanging goal of receiving the U.S. recognition as a nuclear state, a status which it believes will solve all of its significant problems," he said.

Park Won-gon, an expert on North Korea at Ewha Womans University, agreed. Asked about the timing, he said internal issues, including food shortages, might be pushing the regime to consider moving away from its "frontal breakthrough" strategy, which was promulgated at the 2020 central committee meeting of the North's ruling Workers' Party.

"Statements North Korea has issued recently suggest that its economic problems may be far worse than they seem," he said. "How serious it is is expected to determine whether ― as well as when ― North Korea will actually sit down at the negotiating table with the U.S."

If the past is any indication, Pyongyang would rather postpone talks with Washington until the end of the U.S. presidential election next year, according to the experts. However, internal issues, they said, could force them to hurry to seek diplomatic deals ― the partial lifting of sanctions, more specifically ― in return, say, for suspending weapons tests or dismantling a test facility for nuclear arms.

Warplanes of the U.S. and South Korea fly in formation during a joint air drill in South Korea, July 13. AP-Yonhap

If North Korea is truly shifting toward talks, it could be interpreted that the policy of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration's principles-based, step-by-step approach toward peace is working. The policy has been blamed by opposition parties for raising tensions as it pushes the bellicose North to change while leaving no room for negotiation.

"It remains to be seen, however, whether the administration will be able to lead North Korea eventually to dialogue while successfully managing military tensions," Park said.

The U.S. has said it is open to meeting with North Korea without preconditions to discuss any topic. After Kim's statement in North Korea, a U.S. State Department spokesperson told Yonhap, a South Korean news agency, that the U.S. would welcome dialogue on any of a wide range of topics of mutual concern" to "address the security situation in the region."

In a statement on Tuesday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Seoul called for Pyongyang to give up its nuclear ambitions and return to talks, saying the U.S.' extended deterrence is being used as an excuse to continue weapons development.