Is NK's recent nuclear warhead display prelude to nuclear test?

2024-06-07 04:05:44      点击：150

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, gestures as he inspects nuclear warheads at an unidentified location in this photo carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency, Tuesday. The chart behind Kim shows that the warhead is named Hwasan-31 and is compatible with multiple delivery systems. Yonhap

By Nam Hyun-woo

Opinions are divided over North Korea's new Hwasan-31 nuclear warheads. Analysts are debating whether the regime's most recent revelation of the arms is a prelude to Pyongyang's seventh nuclear weapons test.

The Hwasan-31 nuclear warheads were revealed in a series of photos carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency on Tuesday, in which its leader Kim Jong-un inspected weapons that appear to be roughly 1 meter long and 40 to 50 centimeters in diameter.

Around 10 warheads were noticed in the photos, each printed with serial numbers. On a chart seen in the photos, there are eight types of delivery systems and an explanation stating: "nuclear warheads compatible with Hwasan-31."

This indicates that they could be operational. The mass production of warheads that can be fitted onto short- or long-range ballistic missiles and other types of delivery vehicles, is on track.

Many experts agree that the North appears to have achieved significant progress in producing miniaturized, lightweight and modular warheads that can be mounted on various missiles and other delivery systems. This comes just seven years after the North disclosed what it claimed was a nuclear warhead detonator, which drew international skepticism over its operability.

However, opinions are divided over whether the latest display will lead to the regime's seventh nuclear weapons test. Since last year, intelligence authorities and officials of South Korea and the United States have been predicting that the North may conduct another nuclear test anytime soon. But, the Kim regime has not yet dared to test international patience.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observes a purported nuclear detonator during a meeting with scientists and technicians at an undisclosed location in this photo carried by the North's Rodong Sinmun on March 9, 2016. Yonhap

North Korea's time loop

Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Department of Reunification Strategy Studies at the Sejong Institute, predicted that the North may conduct the nuclear test no later than Sept. 9, which will be the regime's 75th anniversary of its founding.

"In its fifth nuclear test in September 2016 and sixth in September 2017, the North revealed nuclear warheads that would be used in the tests through reports on Kim's 'inspection on the weaponizing nuclear arms,'" Cheong said.

"Given this, the North may conduct a nuclear test with the warheads revealed this time before its 75th founding anniversary."

The North's Rodong Sinmun on March 9, 2016, reported that Kim inspected the nuclear weapons program, claiming that its nuclear warheads were "standardized to be fit for ballistic missiles by miniaturizing them." Then, the North revealed a photo of Kim touching a silver orb, which experts said was at a premature stage.

Exactly six months later, the North on Sept. 9 conducted its fifth nuclear test. At the time, the South Korean military said the explosive yield was about 10 kilotons, while other experts suggested 20 kilotons or more. The nuclear bombs dropped on Japan's Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 each had a yield of 16 kilotons and 21 kilotons, respectively.

On Sept. 3, 2017, the Rodong Sinmun reported that Kim had inspected the regime's nuclear weapons program. It carried a photo of Kim observing a silver, peanut-shaped device, which was purported to be a detonator for a thermonuclear weapon.

Hours after the report, the North conducted its sixth nuclear test and claimed that it had detonated a hydrogen bomb. South Korea estimated that the explosive yield was between 50 and 60 kilotons, but overseas analysts assumed that the bomb could have reached up to 270 kilotons.

"After conducting its seventh test, the North will likely release a statement from its nuclear weapon institute that it succeeded in testing miniaturized nuclear warheads that will be fitted on tactical nuclear weapons," Cheong said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observes what the regime claims is a hydrogen bomb during an inspection at its Nuclear Weapon Institute in this captured image from the North's Korea Central TV broadcast on Sept. 3, 2017. Yonhap

Conversely, Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said the North is unlikely to conduct another nuclear test soon, given the assumed details of the Hwasan-31 and the regime's rationale.

"I assume that the Hwasan-31 is a module unit that can be mounted on various types of nuclear warheads, so the North can assemble it directly into missile payloads or other types of delivery systems," Kim said.

Kim noted that the explanation on the chart in the disclosed photo says "nuclear warheads compatible with Hwasan-31." If this explanation is correct, the Hwasan-31 is not a nuclear warhead, but a cartridge or module that can arm a missile with nuclear weapons.

"The Hwasan-31 is not the nuclear detonator which triggers the explosion, but a shell which contains the nuclear detonator, trigger and other devices," Kim said. "This means we cannot confirm what type of detonator is contained in the shell. It can be the orb type, the peanut type or even empty."

Given that, Kim said, the Hwasan-31 may contain detonators that were created in the fifth and sixth nuclear tests. Since the size of the Hwasan-31 is relatively small, there can be assumptions that the North may need additional tests for miniaturized detonators, but Kim said the North does not necessarily have to conduct an additional test if the regime's previous claims of successful nuclear tests are true.

"North Korea is already claiming that its military unit for tactical nuclear weapons are training," he said. "If it conducts the seventh nuclear test for tactical nukes, all of the successes it has been propagating would be lies."