North Korea’s next satellite launch unlikely to make deadline

North Korea's Chollima-1 rocket, carrying a spy satellite, takes off from an undisclosed location in the country, May 31, in this photo released the following day by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap

After failing to put a reconnaissance satellite into space two months ago for the second time this year, North Korea immediately vowed to give it a third try by the end of October.

But analysts and government officials said on Monday that North Korea will likely miss its own deadline, amid speculation that its collaboration with the Kremlin may be the reason for the delay after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared his open support for the effort last month.

Experts contacted by The Korea Times said Pyongyang’s caution suggests two things: major political pressure on North Korean officials and a possibility of Russian technicians providing support as part of their secret diplomatic deal. But the experts believe the extent of Russia's help will be limited because of their mutual mistrust.

“The failures in two previous attempts have significantly raised the political stakes. This time, North Korea has to succeed. That pressure must be enormous,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University. “Between trying again before the deadline and increasing the probability of success, North Korea appears to have chosen the latter.”

After the second failure, said to have been caused by an error in the “emergency blasting system,” North Korea claimed it was “not a big issue in terms of the reliability of cascade engines and the system,” showing its determination to push ahead with the project its leader Kim Jong-un labeled as a top priority.

“At the time, North Korea seemed confident that it would be able to fix the error on its own. But recently, signs have shown that it would rather work with Russia on the project,” said Chung Sung-yoon, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank. “But the Kremlin won’t provide key technologies unless it is necessary. Even if the Kremlin provides some support, it is expected to do so in accordance at its own pace. With the war in Ukraine and the international community critical of giving space technology to North Korea, Russian leaders have many factors to consider.”

In desperation need of North Korean ammunition for its troops in Ukraine, Russia, for now, would give signs that North Korean can gain much from the two countries’ partnership, but Russia's dependence will likely wane over time, Chung said.

“It’s possible that North Korea will never receive the core technology it needs,” he added.

Park reflected that the distrust between teh nations is mutual.

“Russia could certainly advise North Korea in terms of making improvements on the project. But the extent of its help would be limited as the rocket cannot be redesigned at this point,” he said. “Moreover, for Russia to know the fundamental problems, it needs to review all the technical details of the project, which North Korea won’t disclose.”

During Kim’s recent summit with Putin, he was taken to the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a space launch facility in the Amur Oblast region of the Russian Far East. When asked by reporters whether Russia would help North Korea build its own satellites, Putin replied, “That’s why we came here,” in remarks apparently indicating that it will.

A military spy satellite is among the high-tech weapons Kim vowed to develop, along with a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile and a nuclear-powered submarine.