[ANALYSIS] NK
2024-05-28 22:33:27

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shakes hands with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a 'Victory Day' ceremony in Pyongyang,<strong></strong> July 27, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency, Friday. Shoigu read Russian President Vladimir Putin's congratulatory message during the event. Yonhap
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shakes hands with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a "Victory Day" ceremony in Pyongyang, July 27, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency, Friday. Shoigu read Russian President Vladimir Putin's congratulatory message during the event. Yonhap

Kremlin's move seen as attempt to secure Pyongyang's support on Ukraine war

By Nam Hyun-woo

North Korea is highlighting its improved relations with Russia by extensively covering Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's visit to Pyongyang during the North's July 27 "Victory Day" ceremonies, marking the 70th anniversary of the Korean Armistice Agreement.
At the same time, China, which has been viewed as the closest ally of North Korea, made cautious steps in the "Victory Day" ceremonies by sending delegations of relatively lower-profile officials compared to previous occasions. This move appears to be in line with Beijing's recent efforts to manage the intense rivalry with the United States.

The July 29 edition of the North's propaganda weekly Tongil Sinbo featured a significantly high number of photos and articles of Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, who led the Russian delegation in last week's "Victory Day" ceremonies. In comparison, the weekly paid relatively less attention to Li Hongzhong, a Chinese Communist Party Politburo member who represented the Chinese delegation at the ceremonies.

Similar behavior was observed in the July 27-28 coverage by the North's state-run Rodong Shinmun newspaper, which carried 84 photos of the Russian delegation while only printing 30 photos of the Chinese delegation members.

During Shoigu's visits, North Korea and Russia displayed scenes of their improved ties, with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Shoigu reaching a consensus on "matters of mutual concern in the field of national defense and security and of the regional and international security environment" during a meeting. The North also expressed "full-fledged support" for Russia's war against Ukraine.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shakes hands with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a 'Victory Day' ceremony in Pyongyang, July 27, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency, Friday. Shoigu read Russian President Vladimir Putin's congratulatory message during the event. Yonhap
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaks with a Chinese delegation that visited Pyongyang on the occasion of the "Victory Day" ceremony in Pyongyang, July 28, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency, Saturday. Yonhap

In comparison, the Chinese delegation expressed cordial greetings on the traditional friendship between Beijing and Pyongyang, but refrained from making noteworthy remarks.

"In the reporting on the Russian congratulatory delegation, the North used various expressions such as 'consensus of views,' 'strategic coordination and cooperation,' and 'united front,'" said Hong Min, director of the Korea Institute for National Unification, in his report released Saturday.

"However, in the reporting of the Chinese delegation, there were no expressions indicating the two sides' close ties except for customary expressions of traditional friendship. The difference in reporting appears to be a result of Russia's proactive approach compared to China's more cautious stance, rather than the North's intention."

Hong noted that China's cautious stance also appears in the level of rank of its delegation.

China has sent its delegation to the Kim regime three times, which were led by former Vice President Li Yuanchao in 2013, Communist Party Politburo Standing Committee member Liu Yunshan in 2015 and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress Li Zhanshu in 2018. Their political status is higher than Li Hongzhong who is one of 250 members of the politburo.

"It can be interpreted that China deliberately selected Li Hongzhong for the purpose of symbolic attendance, rather than showcasing close cooperation with North Korea," Hong said.

"Amid the recent efforts to lower the tensions in the U.S.-China rivalry, Beijing seemed to have considered recent visits by high-ranking U.S. officials and U.S. messages urging China's cooperation on North Korean issues. By sending the delegation, Beijing apparently sought to prevent emphasizing its ties with North Korea overtly, while still demonstrating its engagement with the North."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shakes hands with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a 'Victory Day' ceremony in Pyongyang, July 27, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency, Friday. Shoigu read Russian President Vladimir Putin's congratulatory message during the event. Yonhap
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un walks with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a banquet for the "Victory Day" ceremony in Pyongyang, July 27, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency, July 28. Yonhap

On the other hand, Russia's moves to strengthen its relations with the North are viewed as an outcome of Moscow's need to secure Pyongyang's diplomatic support on its war against Ukraine and set up a united front against Washington, though it will not result in an immediate military technology transfer between the two sides.

"The North's technological setbacks in its pursuit of intercontinental ballistic missiles, spy satellites and submarine-launched ballistic missiles can be addressed quickly if there is Russian assistance," Hong said.

"This depends on whether Pyongyang has an equivalent that Moscow may want to have despite enduring international criticisms on proliferation. However, except for diplomatic support, wartime supplies and a post-war recovery, there is no great strategic necessity that Russia expects from China. Thus, their military cooperation will likely remain at a limited level."


(作者:产品中心)