[ANALYSIS] What North Korea's recent silence means for South Korea, US
2024-05-28 22:33:22
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| A news program shows an image of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, on a TV screen at Seoul Station in Seoul, April 11. AP-Yonhap |
Pyongyang expected to resume armed provocations targeting S. Korea-US joint drill set for May 25
By Lee Hyo-jin
North Korea seems to be caught in a dilemma on how to respond to a landmark nuclear deal between the United States and South Korea signed recently, which could be a reason why the reclusive regime has refrained from military provocations in the last few weeks, according to analysts.
However, the experts viewed that the North is likely to break its silence and stage a major show of force later this month, targeting the largest-ever joint live-fire drills between Seoul and Washington slated for May 25 to June 15.
In recent months, the Kim Jong-un regime has been ramping up the development of nuclear weapons and missiles, launching a barrage of missile tests including its first solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on April 13.
But the North has refrained from additional military provocations for over a month since then.
It was widely anticipated that Pyongyang would stage military actions during President Yoon Suk Yeol's state visit to meet U.S. President Joe Biden at the end of April. During the summit held on April 26, the two leaders inked the Washington Declaration, with the U.S. promising stronger extended deterrence and "overwhelming response" in the event of North Korean attacks.
Other than issuing commentaries and statements through its state media condemning the Washington Declaration, the North has not shown any military provocations so far.
Cho Han-beom, a senior researcher at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, viewed that Pyongyang seems to be caught in a dilemma following the stronger-than-expected measures promised between the allies, which includes regular deployment of U.S. strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula.
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| North Korea launches a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile from the Sunan area in Pyongyang, March 16, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). Yonhap |
"From what I see, North Korea has yet to decide on what level of provocations to stage in response to the strengthened South Korea-U.S. military ties," he said. "The allies have vowed to take stronger corresponding measures to the North's military threats…so the regime seems to be calculating what steps it should take next."
He added, "Or, the fact that the North has already disclosed to the world its up-to-date weaponry could be another reason why it's been silent for the last few weeks."
He said that the month-long silence does not mean that Pyongyang will give up its nuclear ambitions and return to negotiations.
On April 18, the North Korean leader ordered the completion of military reconnaissance within the month so that it could carry out a launch on the "planned date," raising speculations that the regime will deploy its first spy satellite soon. But it has yet to do so.
Cho said the satellite launch may be delayed for another few weeks, if not months, due to technical issues.
"But considering that Pyongyang has almost always staged armed provocations in response to joint drills with the U.S., it is likely to break the silence and resume military threats later this month," the researcher said.
South Korea and the U.S. will conduct their largest-ever live-fire exercise from May 25 to June 15 in Pocheon, Gyeonggi Province, commemorating the 70th anniversary of bilateral ties.
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, saw that the Kim regime is planning its next moves carefully, and its seventh nuclear test could be one of the options. North Korea conducted its previous nuclear test in September 2017, its sixth.
"If we look at previous patterns, North Korea tends to increase military belligerence following weeks of silence," he said, describing the current situation as "the calm before the storm." He cautiously predicted that Pyongyang may conduct its seventh nuclear test before the monsoon season in the summer.
（作者：汽车配件）
